Small European Film Markets: Portraits and Comparisons
Performance Indicators / Exhibition
Exhibition
1. Number of cinemas & screens
This section considers the number of cinema sites and screens in the CresCine markets and discusses the methodological difficulties in assessing cinema infrastructure in a way that sufficiently reflects different local traditions (see Methodology: Cinema Infrastructure).
As described in the portraits of CresCine’s Small Film Industries section, there can be significant political, geographical and cultural-historical reasons for the particular composition of the theatrical sector (cinema infrastructure) in each of our markets. Open air cinemas and screenings are a non-trivial part of the cinema infrastructure in Croatia for instance – also in relation to screening Croatian films. Estonia’s Kinovõrgu (Kinobuss) network helps bring Estonian films to Estonian audiences in several smaller venues around the country (such as cultural/municipal centres). The different infrastructures are also reflected in the different ways that film boards report number of cinemas and number of screens in their own reports as well as to the European Audiovisual Observatory (see Methodology: Cinema Infrastructure). For instance, HAVC includes open air cinemas and cultural centres in its count of cinema venues, while others do not. In their count of screens (but not cinemas), the Estonian Film Institute since 2014 and Lithuanian Film Centre since 2022 have included cultural/municipal centres and film clubs that only screen films on an irregular basis, while other film boards have not. These data inconsistencies make straightforward comparison difficult. However, as mentioned below, these methodological inconsistencies also reflect different cinema infrastructural logics. The CresCine project will later explore cinema infrastructure and inconsistencies in more depth, including parameters such as types of cinema (such as multiplexes and art cinemas), ownership characteristics, operational characteristics and vertical integration.
The following section gives a bird’s eye-view of number of cinemas and the number of screens in each market in relation to different contextual factors. This study thus goes along with what the national film boards take a ‘cinema’ and a ‘screen’ to be, noting inconsistencies but not settling them.
Portugal has the highest number of cinemas, along with Denmark. Ireland and Croatia are in the middle of the group, although in Croatia’s case this may be caused by HAVC counting the number of cinema sites more generously than other data providers. Estonia, Lithuania and Flanders have the lowest number of cinemas, which is particularly striking in the case of Flanders, with a population of approximately 6.5 million. A key contextualizing factor is the comparatively high population density in Flanders. In terms of numbers of cinemas per 1,000 km², Flanders jumps to second place and the few cinemas in Flanders comparatively serve a very high audience-base, as can be seen by the number of inhabitants per cinema venue in each market. Lithuania and Estonia are in this respect at the other end of the scale. Estonia is more than three times and Lithuania almost five times the size of Flanders, yet they have populations that are approximately 20% and 42% of that of Flanders. Outside of the major cities there are large rural communities that are less populated and the widespread presence of cultural/municipal centres (counted as screens but not as cinemas) with weekly or monthly screenings suggest that this is a more viable approach in many parts of these two countries, compared to running commercial cinemas with regular programming.
Portugal also has the highest number of screens together with Ireland – a significant increase compared to the number of cinemas. This is also demonstrated by the low number of inhabitants per screen in Ireland. As described above, screens are only counted in some markets as ‘the screens of the reported number of cinemas’. However, in the case of Ireland, it does indeed have a cinema infrastructure where multiplexes play a prominent part, as explained in more detail in the Ireland portrait.
2. Admissions and cinema attendance levels
This section discusses the level of cinema attendance in the CresCine markets before and after the Covid-19 pandemic (Methodology: Cinema attendance). Levels of cinema attendance allow for conclusions about the strength of the theatrical sector in the respective ecosystems and about the potential audiences for domestic film. The section Admissions and market shares supplies the concrete numbers and shares of domestic admissions in these markets.
The CresCine markets vary greatly in terms of cinema attendance levels. Ireland achieves the highest number of admissions at over 15 million (average between 2014 and 2022), clearly surpassing the more populous markets Portugal, Flanders and Denmark. Displayed as admissions per capita, Ireland’s inhabitants went to the cinema approximately three times per year before the Covid-19 pandemic, while Croatians went only once. In Ireland admissions per capita have been high since the 1990s (see Ireland portrait), suggesting a strong cinemagoing culture, potentially also supported by the large number of premieres in the country (see Active distributors). In contrast to this, the lack of continuous film programmes in many cinemas in Croatia (see: Croatia Portrait) and few cinema sites in smaller cities factor into Croatia’s low cinema attendance levels. Nevertheless, Croatia was on an upwards trajectory before the pandemic, with total admissions growing by 31% between 2014 and 2019.
Estonia achieves a comparatively high attendance level, with total admissions growing by 41% between 2014 and 2019, which translates into a growth of 2 visits per inhabitant in 2014 to 2.75 in 2019. During this time, the number of cinemas per inhabitant increased (see Number of cinemas & screens) as did domestic film production (see Production volume). The Estonian upwards trajectory showcases that small markets have the potential to increase their cinema attendance levels within the right conditions of cinema infrastructure and production.
Cinema attendance levels clearly show the impact of Covid-19 on exhibition. The amounts of time cinemas closed during the Covid-19 pandemic as reported by the International Union of Cinemas varied between approximately 22 weeks in Croatia (final reopening 20th August 2020) to double that amount of time in Ireland (final reopening on 7th June 2021). Across all countries, attendance levels have not yet bounced back from the pandemic. Recovery rates vary considerably if comparing the 2017-2019 average to 2022 admissions (Marché du Film: Focus, 2023, p.19) from Portugal (63%), Estonia (65%) and Ireland (66%) at the low end and Denmark at the high end, reaching 82% of 2017-2019 admissions numbers in 2022. Comparing 2019 to 2022, the pandemic, on average, knocked off 0.62 cinema visits per inhabitant. While the countries’ levels of admissions remain in similar positions relative to each other in this respect, the difference between admissions per capita between 2019 and 2022 is largest for Portugal (39%), Estonia (37%) and Ireland (33%), suggesting that both countries with short and long Covid-19 closures have struggled to attract people back to the cinema.
3. Admissions and market shares
This section compares the admissions according to films’ regions of origin and highlights trends in the development of domestic market shares in the CresCine ecosystems before and after the Covid-19 pandemic (see: Methodology: Domestic, US, European and other market share).
The majority of cinema admissions in the CresCine territories go towards US-American films. On average, US films account for two thirds of admissions in the CresCine markets. Non-domestic European film averages 16.9% across all markets between 2014 and 2022. The strength of domestic film varies greatly across the countries, ranging from an average (across 2014-2022) share of 30% in Denmark to less than 2% estimated in Ireland (see caveats with market share data for Ireland in Methodology: Domestic, US, European and other market share). Across the years, the domestic films’ share is far from stable for most of the CresCine ecosystems. This is a particular challenge for small markets because the low production numbers (see: Production volume) make the performance of domestic film more dependent on individual titles and the specific genre and/or target group characteristics of the filmic output in the given year (see: Top performing films). Furthermore, domestic film’s performance during the pandemic period differed across the markets.
Despite the specific challenge for small ecosystems with low domestic output, Estonia has achieved an impressive and stable growth of its domestic admissions and market share before the pandemic. Estonian film climbed from circa 122,000 admissions and a 4.7% market share in 2014 to nearly 848,000 admissions and a 23% domestic market share in 2019. Estonian film, therefore, appears to have benefitted disproportionally from the 42% growth in total admissions. Croatia nearly tripled its domestic admissions during the same period from 94,000 domestic admissions and a 2.5% market share in 2014 to 270,000 and a 5.5% share in 2019. The upward trend for domestic film, however, appears to be less stable than in Estonia, as the number and share of Croatian film fluctuated between 2014 and 2019, while the upwards trend in total admissions was stable. This indicates that the success of domestic film in Croatia is very dependent on individual titles (see: Top performing films).
Focusing on a comparison of the development of domestic admissions, domestic share and total admissions between 2014 and 2019 shows what role domestic film has played in the overall development of the cinema sector. In Denmark, Lithuania and Portugal the number of total admissions to domestic films grew between 2014 and 2019, while the share of domestic films actually fell, indicating that higher cinema attendance levels benefit domestic films numerically, but also increased competition with imported film in those ecosystems. Lithuania’s admissions in 2019 are an example of this trend. While the numbers of US admissions were stable, strong admission numbers for non-domestic European and films outside Europe and the US in 2019 lowered Lithuanian films’ share in the 2019 admissions.
In Ireland, domestic film has not been able to profit from increased overall admissions between 2014 and 2019 (+5%) as both the total admissions to Irish film and its share fell by close to 90% in the same period. The sharp decline for Irish film is in part due to the selected period. 2014 was the best year for Irish film in Ireland in the whole period considered, while 2019 was the worst (see caveats with the admission numbers for Ireland in the Domestic, US, European and other market share methodology).
The effect of the Covid-19 pandemic on domestic admissions is of course negative in terms of total admissions for 2020 and 2021 (see: Admissions and cinema attendance levels), but in 5 of the 7 markets the number of domestic admissions fell less sharply than total admissions between 2019 and 2020, increasing the share of domestic. This indicates that the absence of a number of international blockbusters not released in 2020, e.g. No Time to Die (UK, US 2021), Fast & Furious F9 (US 2021), Top Gun Maverick (US 2022) may have provided a slight advantage for domestic film in Estonia, Ireland, Lithuania, Flanders and Denmark, but not in Portugal and Croatia. Denmark is an exceptional case, with the number of domestic admissions in 2020 actually surpassing 2019; an effect that can partially be accredited to the success of Oscar-winning domestic film Druk (DK, SE, NL 2020), which achieved around 800,000 admissions in Denmark in 2020.
4. Box office & ticket prices
This section reports on the development of box office revenues in the CresCine markets between 2014 and 2022 (see Methodology: Box office revenues and ticket prices) as an indicator of the development of the theatrical exhibition sector. It includes a comparison of ticket prices to explore their role in overall levels of Admissions and cinema attendance levels across the ecosystems.
In absolute terms, Denmark and Ireland have the highest box office revenues in the CresCine markets at €138 million and €91 million respectively in 2022. Flanders and Portugal are both close to the CresCine average at €56 million in 2022, while Estonia, Lithuania and Croatia lie very close to one another at around €18 million each. Taking into account population size, Denmark and Ireland still achieve the highest revenues. Denmark’s high ticket prices (see below) play a role here, while Ireland has the highest number of admissions per capita in the sample (see: Admissions and cinema attendance levels). All markets grew between 2014 and 2019. Estonia, Lithuania and Croatia showed the strongest year on year growth levels between 2014 and 2019, indicating growth potential knocked back by the Covid-19 pandemic.
None of the markets had reached pre-pandemic box office revenues by 2022. On average, the CresCine markets lost two thirds of their box office revenues between 2019 and 2020. Denmark, which also recorded the lowest losses in 2020, was 16% below its 2019 revenues in 2022, while Portugal’s 2022 box office revenues were 33% lower than 2019, in line with its lower attendance levels.
The prices of cinema tickets vary between €5.07 in Croatia and €13.43 in Denmark (slide 1). When adjusted for purchasing power levels across the EU (slide 2), Denmark still has the most expensive cinema tickets, while Ireland still is comparatively the cheapest place to go to the cinema and is the most cinema-going nation in our sample (see: Admissions and cinema attendance levels). At the same time, the relatively cheap tickets in Portugal do not translate into high admissions per capita.
5. VoD infrastructure
This section considers the CresCine ecosystems’ VoD infrastructure and uptake of SVoD subscriptions (see Methodology: VoD infrastructure). This is relevant for assessing the domestic VoD circulation potential of domestic film and helps to explain patterns of VoD distribution (see Circulation on VoD).
The CresCine markets differ greatly in terms of the uptake of VoD and diversity of catalogues. The share of households subscribing to VoD services across all countries developed from 12% in 2016 to 70% in 2022. Denmark appears as the most developed VoD market in the sample. Having multiple subscriptions per household is common and VoD viewing surpasses linear TV consumption (see DR Media Development 2022). High levels of subscription give room to multiple players, as shown in the graph below, while also making investments into licensing or production of content a viable strategy for distinction – even for small markets. Lithuania, Portugal, Estonia and Croatia have less developed SVoD markets, but have grown substantially since 2016. The growth levels are pointing to future opportunity for a more diverse and localized VoD offer, though population size limits the economies of scale that providers can achieve.
The three markets with the highest SVoD penetration also feature the largest number of distinct VoD catalogues as monitored by Lumiere VoD in October 2023. These markets also have large shares of their feature film production in domestic circulation (see Circulation on VoD), suggesting that the development of the VoD market increases potential for feature film production to circulate domestically.